最近總有讓我興奮的話題,而今天讓我一定要寫網誌的原因就是:人民幣升值了!

各方要求人民幣升值已經很久了,但中共卻始終無動於衷,由原先的絕對不升值到近期的視情況而定,直到今天放手先升值 2%,它的動作總是出乎人意料之外。其實中共在邁向資本主義的過程中,較為其它國家所詬病的大問題,至今僅剩人民幣的固定匯率,也因此,今天絕對是歷史上的一天。

在回家路上從收音機聽到了這則消息,對於即將遠渡太平洋求學的我來說,這等於上天掉下來的禮物,為什麼呢?因為人民幣的升值會帶動其它亞洲貨幣的跟進,所以假設台幣只升值 10% 好了,對於有可能花掉 200 萬元的我來說,等於是中共幫我省了 20 萬元。沒錯,至少就是 20 萬!

所以如果有人給你 20 萬你會怎麼做呢?是很愛他嗎?不,是超超超愛他的啦!中共,愛你唷~~~


終於放手了!大陸宣佈人民幣升值 2 %                2005. 07.  21東森新聞報 


在各方強大壓力下,中國的人民銀行於
21日下午宣佈人民幣升值2%,從原本的1美元兌8.28元人民幣,升至1美元兌8.11元人民幣。

人民幣何時升值,近年已經成為國際問題,日前才傳出人民幣將於
101日黃金周之前升值,預料人民銀行的「放手」行動,將可稍微緩和國際壓力。

中國人民銀行
21日發佈公告稱,為建立和完善社會主義市場經濟體制,充分發揮市場在資源配置中的基礎性作用,建立健全以市場供求為基礎的、有管理的浮動匯率(新聞、網站)制度,經國務院批准,現就完善人民幣匯率形成機制改革有關事宜公告如下:

 
一、自2005721日起,我國開始實行以市場供求為基礎、參考一籃子貨幣進行調節、有管理的浮動匯率制度。人民幣匯率不再盯住單1美元,形成更富彈性的人民幣匯率機制。

二、中國人民銀行於每個工作日閉市後公佈當日銀行間外匯市場美元等交易貨幣對人民幣匯率的收盤價,作為下一個工作日該貨幣對人民幣交易的中間價格。

三、
200572119時,美元對人民幣交易價格調整為1美元兌8.11元人民幣,作為次日銀行間外匯市場上外匯指定銀行之間交易的中間價,外匯指定銀行可自此時起調整對客戶的掛牌匯價。

四、現階段,每日銀行間外匯市場美元對人民幣的交易價仍在人民銀行公佈的美元交易中間價上下千分之三的幅度內浮動,非美元貨幣對人民幣的交易價在人民銀行公佈的該貨幣交易中間價上下一定幅度內浮動。

大陸媒體報導說,人民銀行將根據市場發育狀況和經濟金融形勢,適時調整匯率浮動區間。

同時,中國人民銀行負責根據國內外經濟金融形勢,以市場供求為基礎,參考籃子貨幣匯率變動,對人民幣匯率進行管理和調節,維護人民幣匯率的正常浮動,保持人民幣匯率在合理、均衡水準上的基本穩定,促進國際收支基本平衡,維護宏觀經濟和金融市場的穩定。



人民幣升值誰是最大贏家                【中央社


英國「衛報」社論指出,中國走向市場經濟體制的態度始終一致:謹慎、務實,且時間點不受外力影響,北京昨天決定人民幣升值之舉,讓美國人覺得長久以來的施壓終於成功,但同時也讓中國仍有餘裕掌握全局,包括在政治、經濟和貿易上,均獲得更多有利今後相關問題的談判籌碼。

美國「今日美國」報也報導說,人民幣升值使中國得以紓緩與美國在政治上的摩擦,因為美中貿易赤字是雙方摩擦的主要來源,尤其是美國國會對中國反感日深,使得布希政府透過眾議員與中美洲簽定自由貿易協定一事變得複雜,同時還得應付眾院對中國施以貿易制裁法案,以及撫平中國「中海油」擬併購「優尼科」石油公司」一案。如今中國宣布人民幣升值,儘管升幅有限,但讓白宮已感激不盡。

美國「華盛頓郵報」引述麻省理工學院經濟學家及前任布希總統經濟顧問富比士的話說,人民幣升值,其他亞洲國家貨幣也可能跟進,對美、亞洲之間的貿易將產生重大影響,例如馬來西亞在中國宣布人民幣升值後決定讓馬幣也和美元(新聞)脫鉤,這表示人民幣升值將造成其他為了與中國競爭而壓低幣值的亞洲貨幣也跟著產生「連鎖反應」。

報導說,如果所有亞洲貨幣對美元匯率(新聞、網站)升高20%,將減少美國800億美元的貿易逆差,雖然只佔美國去年6170億美元逆差額的一小部分,但美國財政部一名資深官員肯定表示,調整人民幣值不是解決貿易失衡的萬靈丹,但它是改善問題的必要條件。

人民幣升值也可能有助於外國在中國高科技公司的投資。報導引述中國清科(Zero2IPO)投資顧問公司的統計數字指出,2004年美國在中國高科技公司投入13億美元的資金,較2003年提高29%2005年將會更高,而較高幣值的人民幣也意味著這些在中國的公司所賺的錢比以美元計價來得有價值。

據美國「聖荷西水星報 (San Jose Mercury News)」指出,對設在中國大陸的外國家電製造商而言,人民幣升值將使成本增加,使產品在全球競爭力減低。惟業者認為除非人民幣大幅升值百分之十至二十,人們才會思考是否要撤離中國。

報導又說,對其他低價且勞力密集的產品而言,進口商可考慮移轉到其它更便宜的國家生產,但對高科技產品的業者而言,要從中國撤出則較為困難,因它不僅需要低成本,也需要有技術的工程師,故高科技產品業者可能要自行吸收人民幣升值所增加的費用。

短期而言,人民幣升值將提高從中國進口的商品價錢,但進口商可改向其他低勞務成本的國家進口,換言之,中南美洲及東南亞國家如印度等國的製造業者,如今可能都高興的等待著歐美國家轉來的訂單湧進。甚至在未來如果人民幣持續升值,這些國家也可以提高對中國出口的可能性。

北京宣布人民幣值將採有限浮動後,經貿界預期在市場需求推助下,人民幣可能天天都以最高上限升值。美國參議院主導人民幣值問題並提案威脅對中國商品課以關稅的參議員舒默(Charles Schumer)表示,以十天的漲幅為3%來推算,三、四個月後就可以達到美國經濟學家及製造商認為人民幣值應調高20-25%才算合理的水準。

但舒默和部分金融專家也承認,中國當局憂心出口產業的勞工就業問題,可能仍會抑制人民幣的快速升值。

人民幣升值的唯一輸家,可能是持美元到中國旅行的人士──花費將會顯著增加,過去幾年來,美國商務旅遊者或觀光客到中國主要城市,已經逐漸發現到中國採購,不見得比去其他國際商務中心來得划算。




China's Opaque Currency Policy

An old Chinese saying holds that the longest journey begins with the first step, but in the case of China's currency policy shift yesterday, the destination of the journey has been left completely unclear and the chosen route has many risks.



China has abandoned one of the world's clearest currency policies, a tightly managed peg of the yuan to the dollar that had endured since 1997.
China has chosen instead to adopt one of the world's most opaque currency policies, with a secret mechanism to reset the yuan's value each night.

For nearly eight years, Beijing's leaders trusted in Alan Greenspan, assuming that where the dollar went, China could safely follow. Now China's rulers are putting their trust in a much less well-known central banker: Zhou Xiaochuan, the governor of the People's Bank of China, who must manage the more discretionary policy put in place yesterday. Starting with the Asian financial crisis in 1997 and continuing through the rapid economic expansion since then, China has allowed the yuan to vary less than one-hundredth of a percent from its peg of 8.277 to the dollar. That impressive stability helped prompt business executives and entrepreneurs from around the world to invest $60 billion a year in new factories and other operations in China. These investors were confident that they knew what those businesses and their exports would be worth in dollars.

The People's Bank of China raised the value of the yuan by 2 percent on yesterday, to 8.11 to the dollar. But more important, the bank said that each evening, it would set a new trading range for the yuan to move within on the next trading day. To add to the uncertainty, each day's new range may not necessarily be expressed in terms of dollars, the bank warned. It did not provide examples, but the euro would be the most likely alternative.

To determine the new peg, the central bank will look at how a basket of foreign currencies moved the day before. But the central bank did not reveal which currencies it will track or their relative weightings within the basket. This policy gives enormous discretion to China's leaders to push the yuan up or down as they choose.

The only limit that the central bank put on its moves was a promise yesterday that the center of each day's trading range would not move more than 0.3 percent in either direction from the center of the previous day's range. But with 20 or so trading days in a month, that means China could in theory push its currency up by 6 percent a month - or push it down by the same amount.



Senior officials in China said in interviews last month that they were seriously considering the adoption of a so-called secret basket of currencies, an approach already followed by Singapore in setting the value of the Singapore dollar. But the officials also acknowledged that the secrecy of this approach carried a serious risk: it leaves China vulnerable to accusations from the United States and other countries that it is manipulating its currency so as to gain an advantage in trade.

The United States Treasury came close in May to labeling China as a currency manipulator and demanded that China allow its currency to appreciate before the next official review in October; countries categorized as manipulators can be subject to trade sanctions. 

Economists disagreed yesterday about how much change China would allow over the next few months in the value of its currency. Nicholas R. Lardy, a China expert at the Institute for International Economics in Washington, said that Chinese central bankers had had the legal discretion for years to let the yuan move in a wider range against the dollar, and had chosen not to exercise it.

But Liang Hong, an economist in the Hong Kong office of
Goldman Sachs, predicted that China would allow the yuan to rise gradually against the dollar. She compared the new policy to China's currency policy in late 1994, when Beijing first pegged the yuan to the dollar and then allowed it to crawl upward by a small fraction of 1 percent each trading day. This resulted in a total increase of 3 percent in 1994 and smaller increases thereafter. 

For American consumers, China's new policy is unlikely to have much effect unless it is followed by much bigger currency moves in the months to come. Chinese exporters making everything from clothing to computers incur much of their costs in dollars, importing essentials like fuel, factory machinery and computer chips. 

This will mean that the overall costs of good manufactured by Chinese producers will rise by considerably less than 2 percent, limiting their need to raise prices to American retailers. Moreover, China is strongest in the production of cheap goods like toys and T-shirts for which the wholesale price paid to the factory in China may be only a quarter of the price charged by a store in the United States. The stores charge much higher prices because they pay rents and wages at American levels.

"Prices in our stores are not changing any time soon," Amy Wyatt, a Wal-Mart spokeswoman, said.

Rival exporters in Asia, mostly countries with low-wage work forces like China's, are expecting the yuan's rise to bring them little relief from the relentless expansion of Chinese companies in world markets. "They will not increase their prices unless it really shoots up farther," said Annisul Huq, a textile magnate in Bangladesh.

Executives from more than a dozen Chinese companies said in interviews over the last four months that they expected very little impact on their exports if the yuan rose less than 5 percent, and only a modest effect if it rose by 5 to 10 percent.

A big question mark hanging over China's currency policy shift is not commercial but financial, economists said. If investors decide that China's secret currency policy will result in a stronger yuan, then they are likely to pour even more money into China - a step that could feed inflation in China and make many Chinese long for the days when China still paid more heed to Mr. Greenspan than Mr. Zhou.

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