峰言峰語

最近常在報上看到宏觀調控，有人問峰子，何謂宏觀調控呢？其實所謂的宏觀調控就是利用總體經濟學上的利率、財政等手段來進行經濟的控制，以達到執政者意欲的目的，像目前中國經濟以年成長率10% 的驚人速度前進（文章用staggering這個字，可譯為咋舌），北京方面希望降溫到年成長率7%，而降溫的方式便可以是調高利率，這樣一來，除了可以讓消費者降低消費支出的意願（因貸款成本提高），也可增加企業的資金成本，以免過度投資。

不過很奇怪的是，作者談到降溫後，並不是講我上面所說的宏觀調控，而是接著談到要如何健全大陸的金融系統等，這有點怪，因為這應是二回事，可見NY times作者的程度其實與峰子還是有一些差距的（哈，我爽）。不過在文章中另外有件令我感到興趣的事，亦即中國大陸目前在這樣的一個高度經濟成長且資金不斷匯入的狀況下，其通膨卻仍是溫和的（tame）？於是我猜想應是其生產力提高，供過於求，以致物價難以上漲的關係。

綜合以上，這也是為什麼一開始在 NY times 6/11的這篇文章便說，現在除了美國的Greenspan 外，中國人民銀行總裁周小川也同樣對世界擁有極大的影響力了，嗟，21世紀嘛！



China's Soft Landing
June 11, 2004

It's not all up to Alan Greenspan. When it comes to the global economy, Zhou Xiaochuan and Liu Mingkang may be as influential, even if most Americans have never heard of them. Mr. Zhou, the governor of China's central bank, and Mr. Liu, its top banking regulator, are central to the country's efforts to cool its overheated economy.

China, the world's most populous nation, has been growing at a torrid (=burning) pace for some time, and there is a gold-rush aspect to its boom that Beijing needs to address. The aim is to achieve what economists call a soft landing, turning that headlong rush into continued, sustainable growth. The alternative is a hard landing, also known as a crash.

More than the recent dot-com bubble, China's boom resembles America's feverish industrialization of the late 19th century. Much as the United States did then, China has a dynamic economy that lacks a developed financial system. If it's serious about its ambitions, the Communist government will need to foster the creation of mature and independent capital markets, even though it would mean relinquishing more control.

China has averaged 10 percent annual growth in recent years, lifting millions out of poverty. The arithmetic of the boom is staggering. Ten million Chinese enter the work force each year, and some 350 million people are expected to migrate from the countryside to cities in the next quarter-century. China's exports have doubled in less than five years, though the country's growing appetite for commodities to fuel its industrialization means that it has an American-size trade deficit. The market for mortgage loans grew by a staggering 40 percent last year. Spending on new steel mills tripled from 2002 to 2003, and China now consumes nearly 30 percent of the world's steel products.

Much of the exuberance is rational, but plenty is not. In a frothy environment where money is in ample supply, and where assessing credit risks remains a sketchy concept, the banking system may have to write off more than a third of its outstanding loans. Part of the soft-landing strategy of Mr. Liu and Mr. Zhou is to make the banks more parsimonious.

Beijing was hoping to push its growth rate down near the 7 percent mark this year, but the economy still grew at an annual rate of 9.7 percent in the first quarter. Economic data released yesterday for the month of May, however, suggests that Beijing is managing to slow things down a bit. While there is still reason to worry about whether a soft landing is achievable, China's strengths should not be underestimated. What's more, inflation remains relatively tame for such a supercharged economy. And the bulk of foreign investment pouring into China is devoted to long-term productive projects.

Everyone has a stake in China's industrialization. China is now one of the world's twin economic engines, alongside the United States. China's growing appetite for everything from soybeans to iron ore is responsible for an across-the-board surge in commodity prices. And not only is the Chinese market helping to perk up Japan and South Korea, but it has also become important to such faraway nations as Brazil. The whole world, in other words, is anxiously watching to see whether China remains the next big thing or becomes the next big bust.